Code Complexity
If a "chunk" of code has lots of defects assigned to it, that might indicate a high level of complexity. A "chunk" could be lots of things: a function, a class, a module/package, anything. My intuition is that the more bugs, the more difficult the code is to understand, maintain and test.
Probabalistic Reasoning
Given a "commit" into cvs, what is the probability it will contain a bug? What factors play into the decision?
- Number of lines changed.
- Number of previous bugs in this chunk?
- Did the current author make the previous, change, or is she working on this code for the first time?
- Number of dependancies introduces (i.e. a new import statment in a java class).